top of page

Tariff Countdown: How Global Markets and Commodities Are Responding

Neil Robbirt
Global financial markets brace themselves for tariff countdown

As April kicks off, global financial markets are on edge. Although last week was relatively uneventful from a volatility standpoint, the calm could soon give way to turbulence. With President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs poised to take effect midweek, a new chapter in the global trade story is about to begin—and the implications span far beyond just currencies.

This week’s developments are expected to influence everything from equities and bonds to oil, gold, and industrial metals. For investors and traders, staying ahead of the curve is essential.


UK: Economic Fog Lingers After the Spring Statement


The UK Spring Statement made headlines but had little immediate impact on markets. That said, it painted a sobering picture for 2025 and beyond. Economic growth forecasts have been revised sharply lower, and medium-term inflation expectations are on the rise. This could force the government into raising taxes later in the year, especially as the Autumn

Budget looms.


Equity investors in UK-focused sectors—especially retail and housing—should prepare for a potentially tougher fiscal backdrop. The bond market may also reprice expectations based on looming fiscal tightening.


The Tariff Countdown: A Tipping Point for Global Trade and Investment

As tariff countdown looms, commodities face volatile trading

The main event this week is undoubtedly the tariff countdown. President Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs begins on Wednesday, April 2nd. In effect, the U.S. will match tariffs levied by foreign countries on American exports, a move that could reignite trade tensions with key partners like the EU and China.


Markets have largely priced in the anticipated tariff structure, but unexpected adjustments could send ripples through global indices, commodity markets, and risk assets. For example:


  • Stock Markets: Export-heavy sectors such as tech, autos, and agriculture may face renewed pressure.

  • Oil and Commodities: Tariffs can weaken global demand forecasts, pushing crude oil and copper prices lower.

  • Gold: As uncertainty rises, gold could benefit from safe-haven flows.


Tomorrow is being called “Liberation Day” by Trump, but for markets, it might feel more like “Judgment Day.”


Key Global Data Points That Could Move Markets


Monday: Inflation and Manufacturing in Focus


Germany releases its Flash CPI, expected to fall to 2.2%. Softer inflation in Europe could ease pressure on the European Central Bank, possibly lifting stocks. In the U.S., the Chicago PMI is forecast to decline to 45.0, signaling ongoing manufacturing weakness.

Lower readings across these indicators may reinforce a “lower-for-longer” interest rate environment—supportive for equities but potentially bearish for oil and industrial metals.


Tuesday: Australia Holds Steady, Europe Provides More Clues


The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates at 4.1%. This should calm equity markets down under, but commodity-linked stocks may still feel the global trade pinch.


In the Eurozone, a mix of manufacturing PMI, unemployment, and flash CPI data will give further clues on economic momentum. Markets will be particularly attuned to industrial production data, as this will impact global demand forecasts for metals like aluminum and zinc.


Wednesday: The Big Tariff Countdown Begins


This is the day investors have been anticipating—and dreading. Trump’s tariffs come into effect, and the fallout will likely influence:


  • Global Indices: Look for movements in the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and DAX.

  • Commodities: Crude oil, soybeans, and copper could react swiftly.

  • Volatility Index (VIX): Expect a spike if tensions escalate.


Also on the docket is the U.S. ADP employment report, forecast at 120k. While not the headline of the day, it will still provide insight into labor market resilience.


Thursday: Services PMI and ECB Minutes


Services sector data from the U.S., UK, and Eurozone will be released. While minimal revisions are expected, markets will be watching for signs of slowing demand, especially in consumer services and tech.


The ECB minutes could impact banking and bond sectors if they reveal a shift in the rate hike outlook. Lower-for-longer sentiment might lift equities but weigh on bank earnings forecasts.


Friday: U.S. Jobs Report – Make or Break Moment


The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is forecast at 140k, down from 151k last month. A large deviation—either way—could send shockwaves through equity and bond markets alike.

A strong jobs report may reinforce confidence in the U.S. recovery, lifting stocks and pressuring gold. A weak print, on the other hand, could prompt a flight to safety, boosting Treasuries and precious metals.


Markets to Watch During the Tariff Countdown

Market/Asset

Why It Matters

U.S. Equities

Sensitive to trade tensions, especially tech and industrials

Oil (WTI, Brent)

Demand-sensitive; tariffs may signal global slowdown

Gold

Safe-haven demand likely to rise amid uncertainty

Copper & Metals

Heavily tied to industrial activity and trade flow

VIX Index

Indicator of market volatility; expected to climb midweek

Investor Checklist for the Week


  • Watch for Tariff Headlines: Sudden changes in trade policy can cause ripple effects.

  • Diversify Holdings: Don’t be overly exposed to trade-sensitive sectors.

  • Use Volatility to Your Advantage: Consider options or inverse ETFs if appropriate.

  • Reassess Commodity Exposure: Especially in oil and industrial metals.

Trade wars could be imminent as tariff countdown nears.
Image Credit: China-US Focus

FAQs: Tariff Countdown and Market Impact


1. How will the tariff countdown affect stocks and commodities?


Higher tariffs can depress trade activity and global growth, leading to pressure on stocks and demand-sensitive commodities like oil and copper.


2. Why is gold expected to rise this week?


In uncertain environments, investors typically move into safe havens like gold, especially when geopolitical risk is elevated.


3. Are emerging markets at risk?


Yes. Many emerging markets are heavily dependent on exports. Trade disruptions can hurt their equity and bond markets.


4. Could this start another trade war?


If retaliatory tariffs follow, it could escalate. Markets are pricing in moderate risk, but a full-scale trade war would trigger broader selloffs.


5. Will the U.S. jobs report affect commodities?


Yes. A weak report could suggest slowing demand for energy and metals, while a strong one might boost sentiment temporarily.


6. What sectors are safest right now?


Defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare tend to perform better during volatility and economic uncertainty.


Stay Sharp During the Tariff Countdown


From commodities to equities, every corner of the financial market will be impacted by this week’s tariff countdown and U.S. labor data. The decisions made in Washington—and how global leaders respond—will shape investment strategies for weeks to come.


Need help navigating this high-stakes week? The Global Investments team is here to guide you with expert analysis and tailored portfolio strategies.

Comentarios


Global Investments Logo

Global Investments Group

Registered office - Suite 301

Mandar House, Main Street 

Road Town, Tortola

British Virgin Islands

Admin hotline: +357 26 022 698

Celebrating 31 Years of Excellence in Financial Planning and Investment Advice

Global Investments does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy, timeliness, or appropriateness of the information contained on this website. The information contained herein is for general guidance on matters of interest only. The application and impact of laws can vary widely based on the specific facts involved and your country of residence. 

Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a qualified Financial Advisor. Global Investments disclaims any responsibility for content errors, omissions, or infringing material and disclaims any responsibility associated with relying on the information provided on this website. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only without regard to any particular user’s investment objectives, financial situation, or means, and Global Investments is in no way whatsoever soliciting any action based upon it. 

This material is not to be construed as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product, or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation, or trading strategy would be illegal. 

Certain transactions, including but not limited to those involving futures, options, and high-yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The fact that Global Investments has made this website available to you neither constitutes; (i) A recommendation that you enter into a particular transaction, nor (ii) A representation that any product described herein is suitable or appropriate for you. 

 

Global Investments offers Insurance Brokerage services to applicable European Union jurisdictions via NFS Insurance Advisors, Agents and Sub Agents Ltd, which is regulated by the Insurance Companies Control Service (ICCS), License No. 5689 and is authorized to introduce business to NFS Network Financial Services Ltd, which is regulated and authorized under MiFID by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission, License No. 328/17. For Non-EU business, Global Investments offers Investment Advice and Insurance Brokerage services to applicable jurisdictions via Financial Services Network Ltd, regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission License No. C116016070. www.fsn-ltd.com.

Risk Warning: Any investment in financial instruments entails substantial risks, the degree of which depends on the nature of each investment and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of any investment may increase or decrease in value and investors may lose all their invested capital.


You should not enter into any transactions unless you have fully understood all such risks. You should neither construe any of the material contained herein as business, financial, investment, hedging, trading, legal, regulatory, tax, or accounting advice nor make this service the primary basis for any investment decisions made by or on behalf of you, your accountants, or your managed or fiduciary accounts, and you may want to consult your business advisor, lawyer, and tax and accounting advisors concerning any contemplated transactions. 

© Copyright 2025 Global Investments. All Rights Reserved.

bottom of page