Tariff Countdown: How Global Markets and Commodities Are Responding
- Neil Robbirt
- Apr 1
- 4 min read
As April kicks off, global financial markets are on edge. Although last week was relatively uneventful from a volatility standpoint, the calm could soon give way to turbulence. With President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs poised to take effect midweek, a new chapter in the global trade story is about to begin—and the implications span far beyond just currencies.
This week’s developments are expected to influence everything from equities and bonds to oil, gold, and industrial metals. For investors and traders, staying ahead of the curve is essential.
UK: Economic Fog Lingers After the Spring Statement
The UK Spring Statement made headlines but had little immediate impact on markets. That said, it painted a sobering picture for 2025 and beyond. Economic growth forecasts have been revised sharply lower, and medium-term inflation expectations are on the rise. This could force the government into raising taxes later in the year, especially as the Autumn
Budget looms.
Equity investors in UK-focused sectors—especially retail and housing—should prepare for a potentially tougher fiscal backdrop. The bond market may also reprice expectations based on looming fiscal tightening.
The Tariff Countdown: A Tipping Point for Global Trade and Investment
The main event this week is undoubtedly the tariff countdown. President Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs begins on Wednesday, April 2nd. In effect, the U.S. will match tariffs levied by foreign countries on American exports, a move that could reignite trade tensions with key partners like the EU and China.
Markets have largely priced in the anticipated tariff structure, but unexpected adjustments could send ripples through global indices, commodity markets, and risk assets. For example:
Stock Markets: Export-heavy sectors such as tech, autos, and agriculture may face renewed pressure.
Oil and Commodities: Tariffs can weaken global demand forecasts, pushing crude oil and copper prices lower.
Gold: As uncertainty rises, gold could benefit from safe-haven flows.
Tomorrow is being called “Liberation Day” by Trump, but for markets, it might feel more like “Judgment Day.”
Key Global Data Points That Could Move Markets
Monday: Inflation and Manufacturing in Focus
Germany releases its Flash CPI, expected to fall to 2.2%. Softer inflation in Europe could ease pressure on the European Central Bank, possibly lifting stocks. In the U.S., the Chicago PMI is forecast to decline to 45.0, signaling ongoing manufacturing weakness.
Lower readings across these indicators may reinforce a “lower-for-longer” interest rate environment—supportive for equities but potentially bearish for oil and industrial metals.
Tuesday: Australia Holds Steady, Europe Provides More Clues
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates at 4.1%. This should calm equity markets down under, but commodity-linked stocks may still feel the global trade pinch.
In the Eurozone, a mix of manufacturing PMI, unemployment, and flash CPI data will give further clues on economic momentum. Markets will be particularly attuned to industrial production data, as this will impact global demand forecasts for metals like aluminum and zinc.
Wednesday: The Big Tariff Countdown Begins
This is the day investors have been anticipating—and dreading. Trump’s tariffs come into effect, and the fallout will likely influence:
Global Indices: Look for movements in the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and DAX.
Commodities: Crude oil, soybeans, and copper could react swiftly.
Volatility Index (VIX): Expect a spike if tensions escalate.
Also on the docket is the U.S. ADP employment report, forecast at 120k. While not the headline of the day, it will still provide insight into labor market resilience.
Thursday: Services PMI and ECB Minutes
Services sector data from the U.S., UK, and Eurozone will be released. While minimal revisions are expected, markets will be watching for signs of slowing demand, especially in consumer services and tech.
The ECB minutes could impact banking and bond sectors if they reveal a shift in the rate hike outlook. Lower-for-longer sentiment might lift equities but weigh on bank earnings forecasts.
Friday: U.S. Jobs Report – Make or Break Moment
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is forecast at 140k, down from 151k last month. A large deviation—either way—could send shockwaves through equity and bond markets alike.
A strong jobs report may reinforce confidence in the U.S. recovery, lifting stocks and pressuring gold. A weak print, on the other hand, could prompt a flight to safety, boosting Treasuries and precious metals.
Markets to Watch During the Tariff Countdown
Market/Asset | Why It Matters |
U.S. Equities | Sensitive to trade tensions, especially tech and industrials |
Oil (WTI, Brent) | Demand-sensitive; tariffs may signal global slowdown |
Gold | Safe-haven demand likely to rise amid uncertainty |
Copper & Metals | Heavily tied to industrial activity and trade flow |
VIX Index | Indicator of market volatility; expected to climb midweek |
Investor Checklist for the Week
Watch for Tariff Headlines: Sudden changes in trade policy can cause ripple effects.
Diversify Holdings: Don’t be overly exposed to trade-sensitive sectors.
Use Volatility to Your Advantage: Consider options or inverse ETFs if appropriate.
Reassess Commodity Exposure: Especially in oil and industrial metals.
FAQs: Tariff Countdown and Market Impact
1. How will the tariff countdown affect stocks and commodities?
Higher tariffs can depress trade activity and global growth, leading to pressure on stocks and demand-sensitive commodities like oil and copper.
2. Why is gold expected to rise this week?
In uncertain environments, investors typically move into safe havens like gold, especially when geopolitical risk is elevated.
3. Are emerging markets at risk?
Yes. Many emerging markets are heavily dependent on exports. Trade disruptions can hurt their equity and bond markets.
4. Could this start another trade war?
If retaliatory tariffs follow, it could escalate. Markets are pricing in moderate risk, but a full-scale trade war would trigger broader selloffs.
5. Will the U.S. jobs report affect commodities?
Yes. A weak report could suggest slowing demand for energy and metals, while a strong one might boost sentiment temporarily.
6. What sectors are safest right now?
Defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare tend to perform better during volatility and economic uncertainty.
Stay Sharp During the Tariff Countdown
From commodities to equities, every corner of the financial market will be impacted by this week’s tariff countdown and U.S. labor data. The decisions made in Washington—and how global leaders respond—will shape investment strategies for weeks to come.
Need help navigating this high-stakes week? The Global Investments team is here to guide you with expert analysis and tailored portfolio strategies.
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