State Pension Forecast: A Step-by-Step Guide to Checking Your Entitlement Online

Knowing how much state pension you are likely to receive is a fundamental input to any retirement plan. Yet a surprising number of British expats have never looked at their official state pension forecast — and when they do, the figures often differ from what they expected. This guide walks you through how to access your state pension forecast via the HMRC Government Gateway, explains what each figure means, and sets out the action points that commonly follow.

Why Your Forecast May Surprise You

Before going through the mechanics, it is worth understanding why many expats find their forecast lower than expected. Common reasons include:

• Years spent abroad without paying voluntary NI — if you left the UK without setting up Class 2 or Class 3 voluntary contributions, those years will be gaps in your record.
• Contracting out — periods in an employer DB scheme, a personal pension under S226 rules, or a SERPS contracted-out arrangement reduce the additional state pension calculation and can significantly lower your starting amount under the transitional new state pension rules.
• Incomplete NI credits — years in which you were employed but earning below the lower earnings limit, or years in which you were a carer but did not apply for NI credits, may show as gaps.
• Years working abroad under a foreign social security system — contributions to foreign social security do not count towards UK NI unless covered by a totalisation (social security) agreement with the UK.

What You Will Need to Access the Forecast

To use the Check Your State Pension service at gov.uk, you need:

1. A Government Gateway user ID and password. If you do not have one, you can create an account online. You will need a UK passport, driving licence, or credit reference check to verify your identity remotely. Identity verification can sometimes be problematic for long-term expats whose UK financial footprint has diminished — see below for alternatives if this is an issue.
2. Your National Insurance number. This is the reference number in the format AB123456C printed on your NI card, payslips, P60, or any HMRC correspondence.
3. A UK or overseas mobile number or email address for two-factor authentication.

Step-by-Step: Accessing the Forecast

1. Go to www.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension
2. Select "Start now" and sign in with your Government Gateway credentials. If you do not have an account, select "Create sign in details."
3. Complete the identity verification steps. HMRC uses a credit reference agency check; if you have no recent UK credit history, you may be offered alternative identity confirmation routes.
4. Once logged in, navigate to the State Pension section.
5. The service will show:
   • Your state pension age
   • Your estimated weekly state pension amount at that age, based on your current NI record
   • Your current number of qualifying years
   • The maximum qualifying years needed for a full pension (35 years for the new state pension, or 30 for those on the old system)
   • Gaps in your NI record — years where you did not contribute enough to count as a qualifying year

Understanding the Figures

State Pension Age

For most people born after 6 October 1954, state pension age is currently 66. For those born between 6 April 1960 and 5 April 1977, it is being gradually increased to 67 (between 2026 and 2028). A further increase to 68 is legislated for between 2044 and 2046, though this is under ongoing political review as of 2026.

Estimated Weekly Amount

This is the projected weekly payment assuming you make no further qualifying years after today. If you continue working (in the UK or abroad with voluntary NI contributions), the figure will increase.

The figure shown is in today's money — it does not include future triple-lock uprating. Your actual payment when you reach state pension age will normally be higher in nominal terms.

Qualifying Years

Each qualifying year is a tax year (6 April to 5 April) in which you paid or were credited with sufficient NI contributions. The number displayed is your confirmed total to date.

Under the new state pension:

• 35 qualifying years = full new state pension (£241.30/week in 2026/27)
• 10 qualifying years = minimum to receive any new state pension
• Fewer than 10 = no new state pension entitlement at all

Each year below 35 reduces your pension proportionately. With 30 years, for example, you would receive 30/35 of the full rate — approximately £206.83/week.

The Transitional Starting Amount

If you contributed before April 2016 (which most people over roughly 26 will have done), the forecast will reflect a transitional starting amount — the higher of what you would have received under the old system versus the new system. If your starting amount is already above the full new state pension (for example, because of substantial SERPS accrual), it will show as protected and you will not be able to increase it further through additional qualifying years.

Gaps in Your NI Record

The service lists each tax year in your NI record and flags whether it is a qualifying year, a partial year, or a gap. For gaps, it typically shows whether you can fill the gap by paying voluntary NI contributions, and gives an indicative cost.

Not all gaps can be filled, and not all gaps are worth filling — see below.

What the Gaps Screen Means

For each gap year, the screen will typically show one of the following:

• "You can pay voluntary contributions to fill this gap" — the year is recent enough to be open, and HMRC has not confirmed that you already met the qualifying threshold.
• "You may be able to pay voluntary contributions to fill this gap" — requires investigation; you may need to contact HMRC.
• "You cannot fill this gap" — the year is too old (generally more than six years ago, unless you qualify for the extended deadline rules applicable to gaps going back to 2006 under the concession available to 2025), or the full amount was already credited.

The extended deadline — which allowed certain gap years going back to April 2006 to be filled at a preferential rate — closed on 5 April 2025. After that date, the standard six-year window applies. If you were unaware of this deadline and have gaps from before 2019/20, the options for filling them are now more limited. Some gaps from tax years prior to 2019/20 may still be fillable in specific circumstances; contact HMRC directly to confirm.

Assessing Whether to Fill a Gap

Not every gap is worth filling. Before paying voluntary NI, consider:

1. Do you already have 35 qualifying years? If so, paying more will not increase your state pension (unless you are below the transitional starting amount cap).
2. Are you likely to accrue more qualifying years before you reach pension age? If you plan to return to the UK, or continue paying voluntary NI while abroad, you may reach 35 years without needing to fill historical gaps.
3. What is the cost versus the return? A Class 3 voluntary contribution for a gap year costs approximately £956.80 in 2026/27 (£18.40/week × 52 weeks). The state pension uplift for one year is approximately £6.89/week (around £358 per year). The payback period is approximately 2.7 years of state pension receipt. At current life expectancy, the contribution is almost always worthwhile — but confirm with your specific numbers.
4. Are you subject to the frozen pension rules? If you live in a country where the UK state pension is frozen, voluntary contributions still improve your starting rate — but you will not benefit from future triple-lock increases. The payback calculation remains positive for most people but at a slightly longer break-even.
5. Can you pay Class 2 instead of Class 3? Note that from 6 April 2026, voluntary Class 2 contributions can no longer be paid in respect of periods spent working abroad — those maintaining a UK record while overseas must now pay at the Class 3 rate. Class 2 (around £189.80/year in 2026/27) remains relevant only for filling earlier, pre-6 April 2026 gap years where the conditions were met (ordinarily resident in the UK before leaving, and self-employed abroad). Check whether any of your fillable gaps qualify for the cheaper Class 2 rate before defaulting to Class 3.

Paying Voluntary Contributions After Checking Your Forecast

If you identify gaps worth filling, the process is:

1. Contact HMRC's NI helpline (International: +44 191 203 7010) or write to HMRC National Insurance Contributions and Employer Office, Benton Park View, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE98 1ZZ.
2. Confirm your eligibility to pay voluntary Class 2 (if applicable) or Class 3 contributions.
3. HMRC will confirm the amount due and provide payment instructions. Bank transfer is usually possible for overseas contributors.
4. Payments are typically processed within several weeks; the qualifying year is then updated on your record.

Allow time: HMRC processing can be slow, and it is advisable to confirm receipt and that the year has been updated.

When the Online Service Is Not Available to You

The Check Your State Pension service is available to people who are within approximately four years of their state pension age. If you are further away than this, the online forecast may not be shown. In that case, you can:

• Request a BR19 State Pension Statement by post — write to the Future Pension Centre, Tyneview Park, Whitley Road, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE98 1BA.
• Contact the Future Pension Centre by phone: +44 191 218 3600 (from abroad).

The BR19 form is also available at gov.uk/state-pension-statement.

If You Cannot Verify Your Identity Online

Long-term expats who have no active UK credit file may find the online identity verification fails. Options include:

• Use the telephone route — the Future Pension Centre can provide your qualifying years and projected pension over the phone, subject to identity verification questions.
• Write by post — slower but reliable for those who cannot complete online identity verification.
• If you have a UK-based accountant or financial adviser, they can sometimes assist with verification via their professional channels.

How Global Investments Can Help

Reviewing your state pension forecast is the logical starting point for any comprehensive retirement plan, and it is something Global Investments recommends to every expat client as part of an initial planning review. Our advisers will help you interpret your forecast, assess the value of filling NI gaps, and integrate your state pension entitlement into a broader income plan that accounts for your pension, investments, and tax position in your country of residence.

We work with internationally mobile clients worldwide, and can connect you with regulated specialists for cross-border tax analysis where DTA issues arise. Contact us to schedule a review.

Please note: HMRC's Government Gateway interface and state pension rules may change. All information reflects HMRC rules as of 2026. Voluntary NI rates change annually. Seek regulated financial advice before making voluntary contribution decisions.